The country has voted, those votes are being counted, and there will soon be a new Government in place and Parliament will be up and running again. But what happens now and in the next few days to get us to that point?
The Royal Proclamation
As well as confirming the formal dissolution of the previous Parliament, the Royal Proclamation which King Charles III issued on 30 May 2024 confirms the date for calling a new Parliament as 9 July 2024. But before we get to that…
On 5 July
Whilst the first Exit Polls at 10pm on Thursday evening will give a pretty good initial indication of the likely result, we can expect the outcome of the election to crystalise overnight, such that we should know who has been elected on Friday 5 July. If the latest polls are to be believed, look out for some big names losing their seats, including current Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, as well as possible losses for touted future Conservative leader Penny Mordaunt and Conservative stalwart Grant Shapps.
The winner will visit Buckingham Palace to meet with King Charles III and be formally appointed as Prime Minister, before being escorted back to No.10 Downing Street to address the nation. This will be a key moment, and marks the first opportunity for the new Prime Minister to attempt to connect with the country as a whole after weeks of campaigning and soundbites.
Key first steps for the new PM
Once they step foot in No.10, as well as receiving numerous briefings with senior civil servants including the Cabinet Secretary on an enormous range of issues (such as nuclear deterrence, national security and a raft of domestic policy), the Prime Minister will field calls from world leaders. They will also begin the crucial task of appointing Cabinet Ministers. If there is a clear majority, it is probable that most senior Government positions will be filled within the first 12-24hrs. A new Prime Minister may also wish to change the structure of government by either abolishing or establishing different government departments.
Once the Cabinet posts are filled, junior ministerial appointments will roll on throughout the next few days so expect a lot of frenetic activity, lots of MPs in and out of No.10 and even more MPs keeping their phone lines open, hoping for a call!
Additionally, key meetings will take place to firm up policy and legislative priorities ahead of the King’s Speech on 17 July (more on that below). Special Advisors will also be appointed throughout this period.
The next few days after that (from 9 July)
The Speaker
Before anything else, the Commons must first elect a Speaker and MPs are formally invited by the King to do so. If the current Speaker (Lyndsay Hoyle) is returned as an MP (which is virtually certain as incumbent Speakers are typically unopposed by the main parties at a General Election) – and actually wants to carry on as Speaker (again, which seems very likely) – then a motion will be moved calling for his re-election. This will be voted on immediately with no debate. Should Lindsay Hoyle decide not to run again, or MPs decline to re-elect him, a new Speaker must be elected and subsequently approved by the King. You can read more about the procedure here.
The Speakers’ Deputies
The Speaker can’t do it all alone, and so three Deputies are also elected by secret ballot. Following their election, the Speaker will confirm a date for the election of Deputies; this is likely to take place within the first week of the new Parliament.
Swearing in of MPs (and Peers)
Members of Parliament and of the House of Lords are required by law to take an oath of allegiance to the crown – or to make an affirmation – before they formally take up their seats. If they fail to do so, they will not be allowed to participate in any business of the House, including debates and votes of any kind. Notably, for political reasons, Sinn Féin MPs have historically refused to take the oath and their seats in Parliament. Swearing in will begin as soon as a Speaker is confirmed and usually takes a few days to complete.
Committee Memberships
As well as electing a Speaker and swearing in MPs and Peers, Chairs for the various Committees of the House must be elected. The proportion of Committees to be Chaired by each party is based upon the party membership within the House as a whole; following their election, the Speaker administers this process, and there is a brief debate as to which Committee is chaired by each party. Chairs are then nominated by their fellow MPs, and voting takes place by secret ballot within the first two weeks of the new session. Membership of Committees is by nomination, with MPs having first been chosen from within each Party democratically. As with Chairing, party composition of Committees reflects the membership of the Commons as a whole.
A brief note of caution on scrutiny, majority and ‘supermajority’
Firstly, ‘supermajority’ has no meaning in a UK political sense – Grant Shapps was perhaps being somewhat hyperbolic when he coined the phrase. However, the size of a Government majority has an enormous impact both on their capacity to push through their agenda, and the degree to which it can be adequately scrutinised.
Without a robust opposition – particularly an Official Opposition – any Government with a large majority will be able to effect significant change, largely unchecked. For some, this may sound like a good thing – after all, if a Government is elected with a strong mandate in a representative democracy such as ours, then that is the way it is supposed to work. However, Government depends on opposition to refine and improve the legislative process – there is breakthrough and wisdom to be found in compromise, iron to be sharpened, hard edges of proposals to be smoothed, which will be sorely missed if that isn’t required. The House of Lords will do its best, but their power is constitutionally limited.
An Official Opposition must be able to match, or ‘Shadow’, their Government counterparts. With some polls indicating there may be fewer than 100 Conservative MPs in the next Parliament, it will be very difficult to do this well. As of April 2024, the Institute for Government noted there were 143 Ministerial posts, being held by 125 people. In a best case scenario, there will be a small pool of MPs having to cover multiple briefs simultaneously – bear in mind that the Leader of the Opposition won’t want to give roles to everyone in the Party, even if they are reduced in number; political parties are broad churches and contain their share of oddballs, too, let alone new MPs who will have no clue where to begin. It will be virtually impossible for effective scrutiny to take place. How can the opposition front bench possibly adequately prepare to cover questions, debates, motions, committees etc in such a situation. How will the work of Government departments be sufficiently monitored? Will the leader of the Official Opposition even be able to make themselves heard at Prime Minister’s Questions each week?!
Committees, too, have considerable power to scrutinise and hold in check the proposals of Government, but this too will suffer. Chairmanship and membership of Committees will be dominated by the ruling Party to such a degree that, as William Hague (Leader of the Official Opposition with 165 MPs in 1997) noted recently, they will essentially be marking their own homework.
In short, whilst a ‘supermajority’ is a meaningless word, the impact would be plenty meaningful and carry significant consequence.
Now, back to the nuts and bolts of the process…
The new session
State Opening and King’s Speech
The State Opening of Parliament – the formal beginning of the new session – will take place on 17 July 2024. As part of the State Opening, King Charles III will deliver the ‘Speech from the Throne’, or King’s Speech.
The King will arrive at the Sovereign’s Entrance, process to the Robing Room, and then on to the throne situated in the House of Lords. Black Rod (the leading parliamentary official) then proceeds to the House of Commons to summon MPs to the House of Lords to listen to the speech. MPs then walk from the Commons chamber, through Central Lobby, and into the Lords, where they stand at the ‘Bar’ of the House of Lords (MPs – nor indeed any non-member – are not allowed in the Chamber proper).
The King’s Speech sets out the priorities and programme of the Government for the forthcoming session and, as well as describing general commitments, ambitions or ‘other measures’ (a catch-all term giving the Government carte blanche to do as it sees fit during the session), will outline specific legislation it intends to introduce and pass.
Debate on ‘the Loyal Address’
Following the King’s Speech, debate begins in both Houses on a humble address to the King – formally, to thank him for his speech; in practice to consider the measures the Government intends to bring forward. This will last for several days, and begins (after a couple of brief contributions from two nominated Government backbench MPs in support of the Address) with the Leader of the Opposition offering their view on the Government’s programme, after which the Prime Minister responds in some detail about the Government’s plans. On the days which follow, debate is grouped into core themes (e.g. health, education, foreign affairs, etc).
Regular business begins…and ends pretty quickly
Once the King’s Speech has been delivered, and notwithstanding that the debate on the Address takes precedence in both Houses, the regular or substantive parliamentary business can begin. This will include Ministerial statements, oral questions to Ministers and Government departments, and also the introduction of Government Bills.
Ballots for Members’ Bills (a means by which Backbench MPs and Peers can propose legislation) in the Commons and Lords will follow in short order. In the Commons, the ballot takes place on the second sitting Thursday of the new parliamentary session. However, with the summer recess likely to begin on 31 July, it is possible the ballot will have to wait until 2 September, when MPs and Peers are expected back from their truncated summer break. In the Lords, the ballot typically happens two days after State Opening (either 19 or 22 July, depending on whether the House sits on Friday 19 July).
And finally…
With Parliament expected to break for summer recess on 31 July (it had originally been set for 23 July pre-Election), we can take a collective national breath before diving back into the fray in early September for a few weeks ahead of Party Conference season. The earliest probable date for the Budget – should Labour form the new Government – is 13 September, though it is perhaps more likely to be post-Conference season.
Either way, expect the summer break for everyone to be a busy one. For Labour, should they win, a Budget to prepare for and programme of Government and strategy to firm-up to hit the ground running in September – the momentum of the first 100 days will be crucial. For a Conservative Party which may be licking its wounds and attempting to recover/discover its identity post-Government, a brand new dawn, the likes of which hasn’t been seen for a generation.
